Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study.
Identifieur interne : 000394 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000393; suivant : 000395Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study.
Auteurs : Adam J. Kucharski [Royaume-Uni] ; Timothy W. Russell [Royaume-Uni] ; Charlie Diamond [Royaume-Uni] ; Yang Liu [Royaume-Uni] ; John Edmunds [Royaume-Uni] ; Sebastian Funk [Royaume-Uni] ; Rosalind M. Eggo [Royaume-Uni]Source :
- The Lancet. Infectious diseases [ 1474-4457 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
An outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has led to 95 333 confirmed cases as of March 5, 2020. Understanding the early transmission dynamics of the infection and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures is crucial for assessing the potential for sustained transmission to occur in new areas. Combining a mathematical model of severe SARS-CoV-2 transmission with four datasets from within and outside Wuhan, we estimated how transmission in Wuhan varied between December, 2019, and February, 2020. We used these estimates to assess the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission to occur in locations outside Wuhan if cases were introduced.
DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30144-4
PubMed: 32171059
Affiliations:
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Eggo</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">The Lancet. Infectious diseases</title><idno type="eISSN">1474-4457</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">An outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has led to 95 333 confirmed cases as of March 5, 2020. Understanding the early transmission dynamics of the infection and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures is crucial for assessing the potential for sustained transmission to occur in new areas. Combining a mathematical model of severe SARS-CoV-2 transmission with four datasets from within and outside Wuhan, we estimated how transmission in Wuhan varied between December, 2019, and February, 2020. We used these estimates to assess the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission to occur in locations outside Wuhan if cases were introduced.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Royaume-Uni</li></country><region><li>Angleterre</li><li>Grand Londres</li></region><settlement><li>Londres</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="Royaume-Uni"><region name="Angleterre"><name sortKey="Kucharski, Adam J" sort="Kucharski, Adam J" uniqKey="Kucharski A" first="Adam J" last="Kucharski">Adam J. Kucharski</name></region><name sortKey="Diamond, Charlie" sort="Diamond, Charlie" uniqKey="Diamond C" first="Charlie" last="Diamond">Charlie Diamond</name><name sortKey="Edmunds, John" sort="Edmunds, John" uniqKey="Edmunds J" first="John" last="Edmunds">John Edmunds</name><name sortKey="Eggo, Rosalind M" sort="Eggo, Rosalind M" uniqKey="Eggo R" first="Rosalind M" last="Eggo">Rosalind M. Eggo</name><name sortKey="Funk, Sebastian" sort="Funk, Sebastian" uniqKey="Funk S" first="Sebastian" last="Funk">Sebastian Funk</name><name sortKey="Liu, Yang" sort="Liu, Yang" uniqKey="Liu Y" first="Yang" last="Liu">Yang Liu</name><name sortKey="Russell, Timothy W" sort="Russell, Timothy W" uniqKey="Russell T" first="Timothy W" last="Russell">Timothy W. Russell</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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